Coin Market Update
(2/9/10)
Overview:
The 2009 coin market was generally characterized by strong price increases in generic (common) gold, weakness in higher priced coins ($15,000 and up), and a steady performance by collector coins (lower priced coins in popular series). The New Year is opening in markedly different fashion. Generic gold is down on lower spot gold prices and reduced TV and telemarketer promotion. Higher priced coins seem to have stabilized. Collector coins continue their steady march. Price disparities between nice coins and off-quality coins are increasing, as nicer coins steadily disappear into long-term collections.
What’s Hot: Early (1793-1857) cents and half-cents, seated half dollars, most coins that are nice for the assigned grade.
What’s Not: Bullion coins and bars, generic gold coins (especially $10’s and $20’s), most silver dollars, high grade modern coins.
On our Shopping List: Type 1 Liberty $20’s (1850-1866), Carson City gold, rare gold in all denominations especially $5 and below, early type coins (1793-1838), key dates in all series, and selected classic gold and silver commemoratives.
How do High Gold Prices Affect Rare Coin Prices?
The market for gold and the market for rare coins are very different, but they can be related. This has been particularly true in the last few years, with gold and silver prices rising sharply. Positive effects on numismatic coins include:
There are also negative effects:
On balance, rising prices for gold and other precious metals have been positive for rare coins over the past few years. Time will tell how long this continues.
Gold and silver bullion prices have tailed off over the last month. It may be a good time to buy for those who desire to accumulate bullion as a hedge against inflation or paper currency devaluation. For those with patience, we continue to favor rare coins; their price appreciation has consistently outperformed that of bullion over longer periods. Either way, we’re here to meet your coin-buying or selling needs. Feel free to contact us any time for more information on coin-related topics.
Coin Market Update
(11/14/09)
Overview:
For the previous 5 years, virtually all parts of the coin market moved higher together. This year, different segments of the coin market have performed quite differently:
* Generic Gold – Already up close to 25% this year, common date gold coins continue to power higher in tandem with bullion prices.
* Collector Coins – The lower-grade and mid-grade Indian and Lincoln cents, buffalo nickels, mercury dimes, walking liberty halves, and other collector series have remained strong throughout, though Lincolns are soft lately.
* Early Type, Key Dates, and Rare Gold – The high dollar coins that led the market inexorably upward over the past five years have been down as much as 5-10% in 2009; but their prices are firming again.
* Morgan and Peace Dollars – Prices have slid 5-8% over the past year, but seem to be leveling out now and may be poised to gain strength.
* Silver and Gold Classic Commemoratives – Really the only laggards during the 5 year bull market, there’s finally some positive action in classic commemoratives. These coins could be a contrarian play.
* Modern Coins in High Grade – Down double-digits this year and falling. Don’t look for this to change. See the warnings in prior coin updates.
The tone of the market is now much more positive than over the summer. Time will tell whether recent softness is a pause in the coin bull market or a turning point. Historically, the best bet is to continue accumulating the coins defined by our “Coins Worth Saving” criteria, found at http://www.coinsworthsaving.com/Coins_Worth_Saving.html.
Even after rising coin prices for the past 5-6 years, there are some coins that look like bargains. The headlong rush into generic $10 and $20 gold and bullion coins has pulled money away from smaller gold denominations and rarer coins. When nice examples are available, we’re still buying Type 1 Liberty $20’s (1850-1866), Carson City gold, rare gold in all denominations especially $5 and below, early type coins (1793-1838), key dates in all series, and selected classic gold and silver commemoratives.
What’s a Really Nice Coin Worth?
Would you ever pay more than the listed retail price for a coin? Savvy dealers, collectors, and investors do it all the time. A coin lacking eye appeal may be a poor bargain at below wholesale price; a coin with great eye appeal may be a steal at a price above full retail. Price guides are based on average coins for the grade. In fact, it could be argued that most transactions picked up by the price guides are for below average coins – because the really nice coins for the grade inevitably get locked up in collections for many years. That’s why two coins certified in the same grade can sell for a price difference of 50% or even 100% in the same auction.
Feel free to contact us any time for more information on coin-related topics.
Coin Market Update
(8/10/09)
Overview:
Summer is usually a quieter time in the coin market, and the summer of 2009 has been no exception. Sales volumes for most dealers, as well as prices in general, have tended toward the soft side. The big winner for the last three months was generic gold: common pre-1933 US gold coins. Generic gold benefited from both increasing spot gold prices and expanding numismatic premiums. Collector coins generally held their ground, while high dollar (over $15,000) coins remained soft. Reflecting this, the CoinAge Price Averages show an average gain of about 2.9% year-to-date in collector coins (VF grade), with a loss of about 3.6% year-to-date in very high end coins (MS-65).
Looking back a full year, most coin indices are anywhere from even (CCDN wholesale price index) to down about 5% (PCGS CU3000 Index at www.pcgs.com). The PCGS Generic Gold Index bucked the trend and is up 12.5% from a year ago. PCGS reports that 26,000 individual coins have increased in value compared to 12,600 that have declined in the past year. At least to this point, coins have certainly escaped the carnage that has ravaged other asset values.
What’s Hot: Generic gold leads the list. Nearly all gold denominations have been strong, with the smaller denominations ($1, $2.50, $5) now joining the $10 and $20 gold coins in the move up. Early 19th century copper (half cents and cents) and better date liberty seated dollars have been strong.
What’s Not: High grade modern issues, high dollar ($15,000+) coins, most currency. Lincoln cents have slipped a little after earlier strength. Some key dates in popular collector series have been soft. The $3 gold denomination has been a little soft following a multi-year run-up.
Looking Ahead:
Prices seem to be leveling out as we head into the fall. Early reports from the bell weather ANA show in Los Angeles indicate some firming. It’s too early to call an end to the softness in coin prices. After muscling higher for seven plus years, the current pullback has been notably mild - there may be more to come. In addition, precious metals prices can be unpredictable and will affect the prices of some coins.
At Solid Rock Rarities LLC , we continue to buy nicer coins whenever the opportunity is presented. Rare coins have increased in value by about 2800% since 1970. They’re highly liquid, easy to store, and beautiful to behold. We specialize in the coins that have historically increased in value: gold coins, early type coins, and key dates. See our criteria for “coins worth saving” on our website at http://www.coinsworthsaving.com/Coins_Worth_Saving.html.
Coin Market Update
(5/1/09)
Overview:
Activity has slowed some in the early part of 2009, but most coin prices have held up well. In the first three months of 2009, approximately 35,000 US coins in the PCGS price guide moved up compared to about 8000 that lost value. A few coins priced over $15,000 have shown softness, as have coins with problems or poor eye appeal. Gold coins continue to show strength, except a few priced above $25,000. Less expensive “collector coins” have held their ground. This is reflected in the major coin indices:
CCDN Coin Market Index (broad wholesale measure): Up about 0.3% year to date
CoinAge Magazine MS65 Index (high end): Down about 4% through March
CoinAge Magazine VF Index (lower end): Up about 0.4% through March
PCGS 3000 Index (broad measure): Down 0.8% in the last 3 months
PCGS Generic Gold Coin Index (more common gold): Up 15% in the last 3 months
PCGS Mint State Rare Gold Coin Index (very high end): Down about 6% in the last 3 months
What’s Hot: Early US coins minted before 1834; key date Indian and Lincoln cents; any but the most expensive gold coins; key date Morgan dollars
What’s Not: Specialty areas such as early gold commemoratives and Morgan VAMs; common date silver coins; high grade modern coins; some very high end (over $25,000) coins; most currency
What are the Best Gold Coins to Buy?:
The answer to this depends largely on your objectives. Below are three general classes of gold coins and observations on each:
Bottom line: Generally, we would prefer to sell numismatic (or at least generic) coins to customers who plan to hold them for some years. However, if you judge that an economic crisis is at hand or simply want to own bullion, we can supply bullion coins at competitive prices. If your needs or your assessment of the financial climate change, bullion coins are easy to sell or trade for numismatic coins.
Feel free to contact us any time for more information on coin-related topics.
Coin Market Update
(1/27/09)
How’s the coin market doing?
The short answer is “a lot better than most markets”. Coins selling for over $25,000 have softened some. Off-quality (cleaned, scratched, undesirable toning) coins of all types are selling for less. Better coins are not advancing as much in price, but are generally not losing value either. Dealers in hard-hit parts of the country report reduced sales, but most coins are holding prices.
How are gold coins doing?
The market for gold coins continues to be very strong and prices have been increasing. Even modern bullion coins, which normally have no numismatic value, are now selling for a significant premium over the value of their bullion content. In the arena of collectible gold coins (pre-1933 U.S. gold coinage), some money has shifted from the smaller denominations ($1, $2.5, $5) to the larger denomination coins ($10, $20).
What’s hot?
In copper, half cents (1793-1829) and early cents (1793-1814) continue to advance in many grades. Early silver half-dimes, dimes, quarters, half dollars, and dollars (1794-1838) show strength in selected grades. Barber dimes (1892-1916), liberty seated dollars (1840-1873), and trade dollars (1873-1885) are also strong. Early gold coins (1795-1839) enjoy insatiable demand. Higher denomination gold coins ($10, $20) have advanced rapidly with gold prices, especially in the lower grades. As noted, even modern bullion coins (American Eagles, Krugerrands, Maple Leafs) carry a significant premium over their inherent metal value.
What’s not?
Some of the higher priced ($25,000+) coins and virtually all off-quality coins have lost some value. Early silver commemorative coins remain out of favor. Mint sets and proof sets have been soft for some time. Higher grades (MS-63, MS-64, MS-65) of smaller gold denominations ($1, $2.5, $5) have come down in price as many people moved to larger gold coins. Modern coins (1933 and later) in very high grades have fallen in price.
What are some possible good buys right now?
· IIf you can afford it, early U.S. gold (1795-1839) will forever be in short supply. Ditto early U.S. silver (1794-1839), especially dollars. These coins ARE America.
If you ever wanted to own $1, $2.5, $5 gold Liberty or Indian coins in higher uncirculated grades (MS-63) an above), now is your chance. Seldom do I recommend "generic" or common date gold, but beautiful examples in higher uncirculated grades are bargains in these lower denominations.
Key dates in all popularly collected series have consistently rewarded their owners. Especially attractive right now are key date Lincoln cents (1909-S VDB, 1914-D, 1922 No D), as release of the new 2009 Lincoln cent reverse designs is likely to kindle demand for the oldies.
My perennial favorite: $3 gold coins, which are rare in all grades and needed for gold type sets. Another solid choice in all seasons is Carson City gold($5, $10, $20).
Nicer liberty seated dollars (1840-1873) and trade dollars (1873-1885) are advancing for a reason - they are much rarer than generally recognized. They could continue to advance.
What is best to avoid?
Any coin that relies solely on metal content for its value, i.e. bullion coins. The exception is if you want to hold precious metals in case of financial market panic or failure. Even then, U.S. commemorative gold coins or circulated pre-1933 U.S. gold may be a better bet.
Modern coins (1933 and later) in very high grades. Their populations will inevitably increase as more are certified.
Bargains on off-quality coins. You'll find yourself liking them less over time, and who will want to by them when you do get ready to sell?